Why do you get silenced or opposing lockdown?

[TixyLixx]

I’ve listened to loads of virologists, and almost none of them support the lockdown, not even the WHO are supporting it any more. There was this amazing podcast I listened to With [LINK REMOVED - see moderation note] and he explains the topic very well. Now the host is a conservative liberal, but as you look at the Tories this doesn’t matter any more as they’re all backing Boris and his lockdown. I’ve listened to a few interviews and they all say “we don’t have the data to go off but we’re backing our party”… okay so you’re blindly voting for the lockdown based on loyalty and nothing else. Well enjoy your seat because the Tories will lose the next election in a landslide as a result.

I just think all reason points towards lockdowns being more damaging than good. If you look at Sweden’s actual death numbers right now, they’re 0-2 a day, they are not having any issues. What Sweden has done is allow the healthy to get infected, and only focused on the elderly and venerable. It has worked, their economy isn’t tanking and they’re not all dying. However the media Lie and say they’re worse off and people believe it without doing any research themselves.

That podcast will explain to you about Coronaviruses and the reality of the situation. Herd immunity eventually happens, the virus does not go away and there is no need for a vaccine as coronaviruses evolve slowly, unlike flu. The people who were exposed to SARS are still immune 17 years later, and as he says antibodies are not what you measure to test immunity. However everyone seems focused on “saving the NHS”, well NHS hospitals have been virtually empty compared to a normal year, figures have actually dropped. The NHS is there to save us, not the other way around… and how can we pay or it I we’re all out of a job? What about all the people going undiagnosed this year? We know people with cancers and other diseases have dropped this year, well that can only be because they’re not getting diagnosed in hospital. What happens when deaths increase next year because the NHS ignored them for this relatively mild coronavirus. A virus with the average age of death in the 80s, higher than the average age of death lol… last time I checked it was only 24th on the list of deaths this year.

Yet you’re not allowed to say anything against it or you get shut down. I just got banned from IGN for only saying the lockdown is pointless, we need herd immunity. I got a notification saying “you will kill thousands” and then I was banned… wtf? Kill thousands, like flu that killed 64K people in Jan 2018 alone in the UK, do we lock down or flu now? Funny though how flu has been cured this year, I mean we see a rise in virus deaths when kids go back to school every September, then we have people in government acting surprised… it happens every year! We will see a rise over winter too, again it happens every year. Guess who dies? The elderly… sorry but le expectancy is there for a reason, something will kill you sooner or later, we cannot stop everyone from dying.

Remember at the start of the year all these government experts were saying “herd immunity” and “face masks do nothing for this virus”. All that went away however when the left wing media started saying they would kill everyone, then Boris backtracked and suddenly all these so called scientists changed their mind lol.

I think this will be the biggest scandal in a few years, how you were all lied to. I also think getting rid of our liberty and freedom is another scandal, yet everyone seems okay with it.

The worst thing is you’re not allowed an opinion any more, you get banned from everywhere or not agreeing. Listen to that podcast anyways as it’s amazing and informative, even If you hate the host.

A few of my keys on my MacBook do not work, but Apple wants £1000 to fix it… so if it has autocorrected wrongly, that is why.

[BillButNotBen]

I’ve listened to loads of virologists, and almost none of them support the lockdown, not even the WHO are supporting it any more.

Almost all the scientists have been calling for a lockdown for weeks. The Conservatives have been resisting them. So this seems misleading.
If you have a link to a news source saying that the WHO is opposing the lockdown then please link it, as I’ve not seen any news of that kind, and the WHO has been warning about the situation in Europe for weeks.

but as you look at the Tories this doesn’t matter any more as they’re all backing Boris and his lockdown

Boris and a lot of the Tories have been trying as hard as they possibly can to avoid a lockdown. They’ve been forced into it against their will by the rising numbers.

do we lock down or flu now? Funny though how flu has been cured this year,

So you believe that the lockdowns and social distancing have had a dramatic effect on reducing flu, but you don’t think it’s had a dramatic effect on reducing Covid?
Remember that the Covid numbers are with a lockdown. They could potentially have been much higher without a lockdown.

Remember at the start of the year all these government experts were saying “herd immunity” and “face masks do nothing for this virus”. All that went away however when the left wing media started saying they would kill everyone, then Boris backtracked and suddenly all these so called scientists changed their mind lol.

Not really. It ‘went away’ when scientists got more evidence. That’s how science works. You follow the best hypothesis you have based on the best data you have, but if you get new better data you change or improve the hypothesis.
Our understanding of how this (and other) virus functions has improved and improved over the course of the year, and our understanding of how things like face masks do and don’t work has also evolved.
Data has come in from other countries, from other approaches, and from studies and this has all affected scientists opinions and advice.

Is it correct now? Probably not, but it’s probably more correct than it was before.

I think this will be the biggest scandal in a few years, how you were all lied to. I also think getting rid of our liberty and freedom is another scandal, yet everyone seems okay with it.

Who exactly is supposed to be lying to us? And why are they doing so?
How are we losing our liberty and freedom?

People are generally ok with the idea of making sacrifices for the good of others. Why? Because most people aren’t selfish assholes.

There is perfectly legitimate room for debate around the relative pros and cons of lockdowns, and around how muc priority should be placed on health vs the economy. But it’s not some massive conspiracy that’s out to get you by making you stay at home and watch netflix for 4 weeks as part of their plan to… er… do something.

Maybe people would be more up for discussing it if you kept it more neutral and less hyperbolic and dismissive.

[alms]

Given the situation in Europe/UK is dire, right now, with healthcare services quickly approaching saturation, and a very real risk of being unable to provide proper treatments to patients of any kind, the link has been removed.

I do not think it would be responsible to risk promoting conspiracy theories concerning the pandemic, as this could potentially fuel unrest, violence and promote unsafe behaviors, all possibly resulting in the loss of life.

The opinions of the person in question have been published in the press, such as The Daily Mail, as well as other sites supporting an anti-lockdown stance, so they’re easy to look up.

The thread will stay up for discussion for the time being.

[Qazinsky]

The problem with herd immunity is that we now know that a person can get Covid more than once. I’ve heard about at least two different cases, first in America a few months ago, and then more recently here in Sweden where the same individual got Covid at two distinct occasions. When talked about on the news, the scientist said that it was actually good news, because the person got a much milder version the second time, pointing to a partial immunity.

Now, I’m sure that over time, herd immunity could possibly work, but I see two problems with that:

1. Some people, like the elderly and other at risk groups, should not get it even once, eveyone else running around partially immune is not going to help them at all.

2. People can barely stand the time that has passed now, where the assumption is that we could possibly get immunity from one bout and build herd immunity that way, imagine having to get it two or more times before actual herd immunity comes into effect, alot of people are barely avoiding each other in the streets already!

Broad description of living in a small town in Sweden during Covid if anyone is interested.

So, things are pretty much as before but with a sense of dread at the back of my head. Almost noone wears masks here, I think I’ve seen like one person in a mask. We wander around in the streets, some people try to keep a distance, but mostly, I could touch anyone I pass by sticking my arm straight out if I was so inclined. I personally try to keep some distance, but people walk like a moving maze, sometimes I’m just happy to get past four in a row people walking in the middle of the sidewalk.

The same with stores, there is some antibacterial gel dispensers at the entrance and the cash register, the floor having clear 2-3 meters lines taped to them, but alot of people ignore them, making your own efforts in vain. Just a few days ago, I was standing in line, standing on the line while the person ahead of me paid, then a woman and her kid just stepped up like half a meter behind me. I know that kids under ten tend to fare the best with Covid, but shouldn’t parents be protective of their kids anyway, you know, just in case?

In the beggining, work told people to work from home if they could (I cannot, I handle invoices that come in every day so I kind of have to do my job at location) but after a while they set up rules that everyone had to come in to the office at least three days a week.

Something I am not proud of though, is that I am a bit jealous of everyone that quarantines for a few months. Yes, I know that that is probably hell for alot of people, but I happen to know from previous experience that I excel at being cooped up at home for extended periods of time.

[alms]

I’ve heard about at least two different cases, first in America a few months ago, and then more recently here in Sweden where the same individual got Covid at two distinct occasions

From what I’ve gathered, the immunity to SARS-COV-2 might be short-lived, which may explain some cases of people who get infected a second time.

Even without partial and/or short-lived immunity, the main problem with reaching herd immunity in many countries, would be largely the one I’ve already touched in passing in my previous post.

If the number of infected is left free to boom, even if only a small portion of those actually develop symptoms requiring medical care, the healthcare systems (hospitals, clinics, etc) risk getting overloaded and not being able to care for emergencies, COVID itself, not to mention administer ordinary healthcare.

This potentially leads to a high number of deaths that can be avoided by simply containing the spread of the virus.

And, of course, even with proper care, you’d rather keep the number of infected to a minimum given that some people seem to have more serious reactions and/or symptoms but you don’t know in advance.

It can be seniors (whom I see no reason to throw under the bus anyway, they’re people, too). But there’s been plenty of serious cases among younger folks.

People under 40 might have a lower chance for serious outcomes than the elderly, but it’s not zero.

Even a 20 year old can die of COVID, if they have those serious reactions. Imagine being the parent of that 20 yo that has died because of COVID, and having to face them and explain “well you know, everyone dies sooner or later <shrug>”

Broad description of living in a small town in Sweden during Covid if anyone is interested.

I most certainly do, thanks for sharing.

The ‘fun’ thing is that I kept hearing how the majority of Swedes were used to comply with government recommendations without a need for hard-cut rules that can be enforced.

The picture you’ve painted isn’t so much different from what has been happening in other European countries, though.

[Qazinsky]

The ‘fun’ thing is that I kept hearing how the majority of Swedes were used to comply with government recommendations without a need for hard-cut rules that can be enforced.

That is actually kind of true, when this all began, people were following the rules more, the current sitting political party (Socialdemokraterna, the moderate left party, not to be confused with Sverigedemokraterna, the populist antimmigration party) rose in approval rates, all the parties ceased the more common fighting and Anders Tegnell, the expert that is on the news all the time became very popular with people, some even tattooing his face on their body.

As the months have passed though, people have gotten fed up, the goodwill for S has sunken and the political truce is now over, a government crisis looming on the horison.

[MiniMatt]

and almost none of them support the lockdown, not even the WHO are supporting it any more

That is simply not true. It’s so plainly untrue, and so easily checkable as untrue (https://www.who.int) that to state it can only come from a position of ignorance or malice. Either way, removing such grossly untrue assertions about a public health emergency is manifestly the correct moderation response whether here or on IGN.

Look I love me a good conspiracy theory, I really do. But I like to at least imagine the evil puppet masters out there pulling the strings and deceiving a gullible public will get something out of the chaos - you think the media are lying to you? Why? What do they gain? You think the politicians are lying to you? The doctors? What do you think they get out of this, and how have they organised across the entire globe to so effectively fool everyone?

[alms]

As the months have passed though, people have gotten fed up, the goodwill for S has sunken and the political truce is now over, a government crisis looming on the horison.

This is also, I’m afraid, some part of a general trend. A certain weariness has set in, and it reflects, now negatively, on those in charge, also as the hindsight bias gets exploited to the sky and back for telling people that a different government would have averted the crisis.

However, everybody seems to be experiencing an unexpectedly quick resurgence of COVID, albeit, to a different extent in different countries.

---

@MiniMatt IMO both anti-vaxx and now the COVID conspiracy theories are partly (not exclusively) due to a desensitization caused by alarmist tones used in previous cases, and the perception that there was much ado about nothing, pushed by Big Pharma for profit.

Now it should be plenty obvious that viruses can and do get out of control, and while I do not condone facts-hostile narratives that only provide short-term satisfaction, I also believe both media and the pharmaceutical industry are responsible for helping set up fertile environment for thought viruses to spread.

[Sarfrin]

As I understand it, herd immunity to a rapidly mutating virus can only be achieved with the aid of a vaccine, which we don’t have.

[alms]

AFAIK SARS-COV-2 is mutating, but not rapidly, although I’ve heard mention of a Spanish Strain, lately, a piece of news whose trustworthiness I can’t vouch for and am merely reporting FTR.

Looking up ‘COVID rapid mutation’ brings up articles whose titles claim the exact opposite, i.e. that it slowly mutates.

Personally, I’ve only heard this rapid mutation claim coming from those who are against lock-downs, face masks, vaccines and so on, used as an argument in favor of a laissez-faire management of COVID.

[BillButNotBen]

It’s been interesting to see how much scientists still don’t know about things like viruses and the immune system. I guess I’d kinda assumed we’d figured all that out.
It seems like immunity comes from a bunch of different systems in the body (antibodies, t-cells, etc…) and scientists are still trying to figure out how effective each different one is against Covid and how long that effect will last.
The general response (antibodies?) seems to be pretty short lived, but then maybe the T-Cell response lasts longer. Then there’s the weird thing where people in developed countries seem to be being hit much harder than people in developing countries, which some scientists seem to think is due to people in developing countries being exposed to more bacteria and pathogens during their lives and therefore developing immune systems that are stronger in some ways (was it antigens? Don’t remember) and yet weaker in others.

It seems like we will come out of this with a much better understanding of how a lot of these systems work and interact… but even then that may not apply directly to the next pandemic, as a lot of it seems to depend on the specifics of the infection in question.

If you look at Sweden’s actual death numbers right now, they’re 0-2 a day, they are not having any issues. What Sweden has done is allow the healthy to get infected, and only focused on the elderly and venerable. It has worked, their economy isn’t tanking and they’re not all dying.

One thing that seems clear is that data from one country isn’t always comparable with data from another country. There are so many different factors that it’s hard to take too many lessons.
Of course, we should learn what we can, but we shouldn’t assume that just because country X did something then that would work for every country.
Things seem to have somewhat worked out for Sweden, but a month or so ago the guy in charge of their response was saying how he regretted some of his decisions and would probably have gone for a stronger lockdown as the number of deaths in Sweden was a lot higher than neighboring countries with stricter lockdowns. I don’t know if that has changed recently or not.

Hindsight is 20:20 as they say, and it may well be that a lot of the decisions people are making now turn out to have been wrong. All we can really ask is that they make the best honest decisions that they can based on the best data that they have available at the time.

Just FYI, the following are likely to make a lot of people dismiss your posts:

However the media Lie

the left wing media

these so called scientists

If someone is coming out with this kind of stuff then it gives the impression of them being a politically motivated extremist poster, and so any facts or links that they post are immediately questionable. There’s so much politically motivated misinformation swirling around at the moment, that some people are promoting intentionally and others are promoting unintentionally because they only get their info from their narrow extremist social media bubble so they actually believe it.

IMHO Politicians are the ones who need to be making these decisions, as that’s what they exist for. But these issues are mostly not political, and should be kept as depoliticised as possible… otherwise you end up with crazy situations like you have in the US where simple public health measures like wearing a mask somehow become polarised political statements.

As such, the politicians should be basing their decisions as much as possible on the science. With the knowledge that scientists aren’t perfect, that the science will change as we learn more, and that this pandemic covers more than one area of science, and that they’ll have to do their best to balance the public health science with the behavioral science and the economic science.
And with the knowledge that there’s probably no perfect solution and that they’ll get blamed no matter what they do.

[MiniMatt]

however when the left wing media started saying they would kill everyone

Look I’m lashing out as I’m sat watching yet another election night where my tribe - the liberal left wing media types - are getting fucking trashed yet again, but I am fucking sick of this whiny victimhood the right play. You did it last year with your “why are gaming sites all left wing” thread, and it’s the same whine now. YOU’VE WON. Get that? Every single UK general election for the last decade, all four of them, won by the right wing. Brexit, you won that too. Across the pond you got Trump once and evens chance you’ll get him again.

You’ve won, get over it. If the world is not how you want it to be, then it’s because the right wing have made it that way for the last decade. Stop playing the victim.

[Sarfrin]

AFAIK SARS-COV-2 is mutating, but not rapidly

I should have qualified that as ‘rapidly enough that immunity this year won’t guarantee immunity next year and therefore herd immunity isn’t a thing without an annually updated vaccine’.

[theclockworkrat]

I am not opposed to lockdown because I have seen and cared for patients with covid and never want to have to do that again. It’s a tortuous, miserable, lonely death.

People being cavalier with lockdown have absolutely no fucking idea what it’s like.

[Similar]

Bit late to the thread, but Sweden has had 42 deaths the past day, 40 the day before. That’s something like ten times more than in the other Scandinavian countries.
8 times more infected than Finland and 3.5 more than Norway (Denmark isn’t doing as well as Finland and Norway, but people here have been very lax about safety lately).
Herd immunity does not seem to work very well with COVID-19.

[alms]

Yeah, I’ve heard too the situation in Sweden is getting worse. I’m not sure, though, European countries can be used as examples for whether herd immunity works or not for COVID19, seeing how none of us has let the virus roam free which is, in my understanding, a necessary precondition to get to the point where herd immunity can begin to emerge.

I’ve heard this consideration offered by the media and it left me confused, as to how the reasoning behind it could go ?

[Sarfrin]

This article in Nature discusses herd immunity for COVID.
A couple of pertinent quotes below.

The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19

“Typically, herd immunity is discussed as a desirable result of wide-scale vaccination programmes. High levels of vaccination-induced immunity in the population benefits those who can’t receive or sufficiently respond to a vaccine, such as people with compromised immune systems”

“But public-health experts don’t usually talk about herd immunity as a tool in the absence of vaccines. “I’m a bit puzzled that it’s now used to mean how many people need to get infected before this thing stops,” says Marcel Salathé, an epidemiologist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne.”

[alms]

Speaking broadly, herd Immunity can also be reached through infection, though, as the infected who survive become immunized, at least for a while.

Wikipedia, for instance, confirms this.

In every COVID19 related discussion so far (and for a while more, too) it’s implicit that herd immunity cannot be an effect of vaccination.

I find the two quotes from Nature a bit captious for they acknowledge that herd immunity through infection is a possibility, but try at the same time to paint the notion as something extravagant.

Mind, I do agree that it’s extravagant at the very least (more like irresponsible) to put forward a proposal to let the virus spread freely, but at the same time I find this bending of definitions annoying and potentially dangerous.

Some people who pick up the verbal sleight of hand might, since they are not me, reject science-backed messages completely because “you can’t trust ‘scientists’”

[Sarfrin]

I find the two quotes from Nature a bit captious for they acknowledge that herd immunity through infection is a possibility, but try at the same time to paint the notion as something extravagant.

More unethical than extravagant I’d say, because it would involve a lot of people dying or being left with lasting health problems, which its proponents tend to gloss over by saying the ‘vulnerable’ (who can’t reliably be identified in advance) could somehow be shielded.
What it amounts to is ‘I’ll be fine, shut all those other people in indefinitely and let me do what I want.’

[alms]

What it amounts to is ‘I’ll be fine, shut all those other people in indefinitely and let me do what I want.’

I’m afraid that reading might be spot on.

Perhaps I’m getting a misleading impression from not having had a chance to read the whole thing yet.