I’m with you. I think Trump will make it to the end of his term, and if he looks like he’s going to be impeached if he runs again, he’ll give speeches saying “Good job me, I MAGA’d America, drained the swamp, and fixed immigration forever! Now I am going to retire to run my business empire which isn’t all falling apart! PS Pls vote for my dumbest, sleaziest son who will run for president in 2025!”, and not stand for re-election. I don’t think there’s any way he’ll resign.
There is also the outside possibility he’ll get Article 25’d - i.e. removed from office due to mental health issues. He’s clearly suffering from age-related mental decline (not even the earliest stages!). But I doubt that because they kept Reagan on despite him starting to suffer from pretty severe Alzheimers (or some form of dementia), which was successfully covered up until he left office. He should, by all rights, have been Article 25’d several years before he resigned (Reagan’s own son noted he was experiencing serious decline by 1984, but Reagan stayed in office until 1989). I suspect it was Alzheimers, despite those claiming otherwise, because he had times of complete lucidity, and moments where he could barely function, which is characteristic of that.