USA Politics: Fate of the World

[Skalpadda]

US politics have just been depressive stupidity on repeat for a while now, but this is genuinely hilarious.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-twitter-conspiracy-theory_us_5c079cb5e4b0fc23611189e9

[Fumarole]

The walls are closing in.

[Aerothorn]

Depends on what you mean by walls. Trump (in theory) cannot be criminally indicted while he is a sitting president; by design, the only resolution is impeachment, which means a large number of Republicans would have to find their spines again and decided that this was where they drew the line, stopped backing Trump, and voted to oust him. But in the two years since his election, there has been a rapid change of the Republican party, where traditional Republicans were either ousted or forced to stay quiet and play along, while pretty much all the new people elected are overt “it’s all a giant conspiracy, Trump can do no wrong” sorts.

As of right now, only 55% of Americans believe the investigating is legitimate, which goes to show the power of the pulpit and a coordinate campaign to undermine it. Even assuming 100% of allegations are true, I just don’t see how it results in Trump being removed by office, except maybe - possibly - hurting him in the 2020 election.

[ThatFuzzyTiger]

He can-ish, but it goes nowhere. On the Criminal Indictment front. It’s one of those strange situations where you can’t actually charge a sitting President with a crime (even one as serious as this) and the only way to oust him is through impeachment (I’m pretty sure the GOP are willing to even keep a Criminal Trump in power right now).

As for 2020 - Money is still on Trump vs. Oprah. Anything else and Trump just Forrest Gumps his way to another four years.

[TheDreamlord]

As for 2020 - Money is still on Trump vs. Oprah. Anything else and Trump just Forrest Gumps his way to another four years.

Is Oprah officially confirmed as a candidate?

[Skalpadda]

The walls are closing in.

I’m not so sure just yet. What we have publicly so far is campaign finance violations, emoluments violations and lies about a business deal with Russia that ultimately didn’t happen. Two problems with that: First that no one, even most Trump supporters, genuinely think he’s anything but a crook and a liar, so neither accusation is likely to shake anyone up or shift his support much - the Fox News machine has already been hand-waving all these things as insignificant misdemeanors for months and months. Second, Republicans just don’t give a single fuck anymore. Looking at the antidemocratic fuckery they’ve engaged in on state level after getting whipped in the midterms it’s clear that they’re beyond redemption. It’s a cultural battle for survival for them and they don’t care how crooked or incompetent their side is as long as they win.

More things are likely to come out in the coming months and perhaps something damning enough and with enough solid proof will emerge that it can’t be swept under the rug or be dealt with by throwing another bunch of henchmen under the bus, but this battle is far from over.

Is Oprah officially confirmed as a candidate?

No. I’ve seen talk of Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke and possibly Joe Biden so far.

[ThatFuzzyTiger]

No, but that’s where my money is. Anything else and I can’t see Trump losing.

[TheDreamlord]

Who will be her second in command? Dr Phil?

[The_Velour_Fog]

you arent giving Mueller enough credit

[Skalpadda]

you arent giving Mueller enough credit

Mueller seems to be doing a fine job getting to the bottom of things. But, unless he comes up with something truly damning that can’t be deflected, scapegoated or swept under the rug, there might still be enough GOP fuckery and/or enough morons and morally bankrupt socipaths in the US that the Republicans, and Trump, manage to cling to power in 2020.

[Fumarole]

Closer…

National Enquirer publisher AMI strikes deal with prosecutors in Michael Cohen...

As part of the agreement, AMI admitted to making a payment of $150,000 in cooperation with members of Trump’s presidential campaign in order to prevent former Playboy model Karen McDougal’s claims of an affair with Trump from being made public during the 2016 race.

[…]

“At the meeting, Pecker offered to help deal with negative stories about that presidential candidate’s relationships with women by, among other things, assisting the campaign in identifying such stories so they could be purchased and their publication avoided,” the agreement read. “Pecker agreed to keep Cohen apprised of any such negative stories.”

[Skalpadda]

Closer…

I’m still not getting my hopes up over this particular one, as the right are already widely dismissing campaign finance violations as nothingburgers and I doubt a Republican senate would vote to convict if this sort of thing is the basis for impeachment. It could get interesting if the Trump Org, Kushner, Ivanka or Junior get indicted though, which doesn’t seem entirely unlikely and it’ll be fascinating to see how far under the bus Trump is willing to throw his own kids.

Perhaps I’ve become too cynical after the rather anaemic midterms (it wasn’t too long ago that I was actually pretty optimistic about the US (thanks Obama)), but even getting rid of Trump wouldn’t change much in terms of getting a more sane and humane USA as long as 70+ percent of the population is either indifferent or actively votes for lunatics. I also hadn’t realised just how messed up the US election system is until fairly recently. Seeing the antidemocratic means of entrenching the 2-party system, the voter suppression strategies, downright cheating or other filthy underhanded tactics to cling to power without We The People bothering to do much more than write angry twitter posts and signing some petitions is just sad.

And in other apocalyptic news, this NYT podcast actually creeped me the hell out. Not so much because of what’s happened in the US, but because similar complacency exists and seems to be growing here in Europe as well.

The Rise of Right-Wing Extremism, and How U.S. Law Enforcement Ignored It

[coldvvvave]

So, reportedly US forces are going out of Syria in January.

Any hot takes?

[Skalpadda]

In the most unplanned and irresponsible way possible, it appears. Mattis leaving seems to have actually turned some heads in congress for a change, not that I expect republicans to actually do something about it.

[Grizzly]

I’m torn between the part of me that says that the US should never have been there in the first place and the part that says that now that they have been there they should atleast have the decency to clean up after themselves.

[Sarfrin]

I’m torn between the part of me that says that the US should never have been there in the first place and the part that says that now that they have been there they should atleast have the decency to clean up after themselves.

It adds up to a total lack of decency either way. Typical of Trump.

[Skalpadda]

Regardless of the wisdom of getting in there in the first place you don’t announce it via tweet while ignoring the DoD, NSC and all your other advisers, having no exit plan and not giving your allies advance warning. It’s more foreign policy via sudden fancy in a situation where it could lead to a lot of deaths and further destabilisation, and adds to the pile of evidence that no-one should rely on the US as an ally, ever again.

[ThatFuzzyTiger]

And once again at the risk of being Captain Obvious - Does anyone actually expect anything other than this from Trump.

He’s not really one for clever thinking, he’s leaving Syria to Iran / Russia / Turkey (in descending order of influence) which is great for Iran since that allows them to really start putting down serious influence in the area. Russia is good with that as they’re backing Iran (which in the short term is good for Russia, but long term potentially bad since Iran will, once nuclear, immediately go for glassing Israel which in turn will turn the Middle East extremely radioactive). Finally, Turkey is good with that as it allows them to play the “Westerners bad” narrative that Erdogan has been so fond of using to great effect.

For anyone except Iran though, the US leaving Syria in this manner is pretty horrific, and in terms of what this does to the Middle-East sphere, well, like I said, Iran’s going to get very muscular in the area, and that’s not what you want or need. Hard line theocratic state which is majority conservative Islam who’s actual decision makers are all for nuking unbelievers? (Yes, their elected head is a moderate, but nothing goes forward without the Ayatollah’s blessing) Good times!

[coldvvvave]

he’s leaving Syria to Iran / Russia / Turkey

But the war was effectively decided back when Obama was still in office. There was never any strategic perspective for US in Syria with what they were willing to commit there. They have a simple dilemma, pull out or go to war against Assad for real now, on a side of a re-branded Marxist militia no less. A lot of people are saying US is betraying the YPG/YPJ by leaving. Surely no one thought US was willing to fight to the death for them against Turkey? American policy in Syria was always quite schizophrenic but not to that extent.

Iran will, once nuclear, immediately go for glassing Israel

According to Tom Clancy? Dan Simmons? Ben Netanyahu? Some other sci-fi author? Iran mullahs may be a bit on an evil side of the spectrum (I’m sure they are assholes) and I’m sure they say a lot of hot stuff for internal consumption but I sort of doubt they are screaming lunatics. They and their allies are in a struggle against US-Israel-Saudi de facto alliance in the region that is true. But they were playing their hand more or less rationally so far and their expanding influence in the region is a testament to that (Though American antics in MENA did most of the work for them). Nuking someone and then being nuked back is not very practical.

TLDR: I’m pretty sure they just want what anyone would want if put in their place - deterrence.

Hard line theocratic state which is majority conservative Islam who’s actual decision makers are all for nuking unbelievers?

From what I know all people who worship Abrahamic religions including Judaism ARE considered to be believers according to Quaran. Never heard that Shia Muslims are any different in that regard.

Just sayin’

[Lukasz]

According to

To half of the Muslim world which wants Isreal to be wiped out.

You underestimating how much hatred is there towards Isreal and Jewish people from Indonesia to Morocco.

And nukes as cute they are, are a nice way of getting your way.

Isreal is prone to fucking up its relations with Muslim world and one bigger fuck up can result in someone taking the initiative and just doing what’s “God wants us to do”

They tried it few times already using conventional means…
Now just add nukes and you don’t have much one sided war anymore

And FYI

Saudi Arabia is not an ally of the USA or Israel.

The royal family is. A few dozen people are holding the whole country and their western equipment from turning against Isreal and western world.

Few generals or small revolution and Saudi is just like Iran…

Actually much more dangerous with wealth and international connections not to mention all those war toys