UK Politics: Welcome to the Age of the Boris

LexW 2019-09-16 13:04:44 UTC #2983

You’re conflating a lot of separate issues re Corbyn.

Business is less scared of him than a no deal Brexit, a lot less scared. The FT has had more than one article on the topic. I think because they realise that in practice he’d have to moderate his proposals due to a limited majority if any.

People who have voted Labour previously are not scared of his economic policies either, generally, despite scaremongering and exotic lies from the usual suspects. However, Labour leavers don’t believe in him wanting to leave, despite the fact that he clearly does. In fact he’s basically close to the no deal camp, because that’s how you get a socialist republic or so he believes.

And most voters just don’t see him as a competent leader. That’s aside from any policies. They just see a mealy-mouthed non-entity who looks like he’d rather be down the allotment.

The Tory polling is is pulling ahead for two reasons. Firstly, by going no deal, they get the nutters back. The 22% of Leave who actually want no deal. That’s huge for them. Secondly, they’re advertising unfunded massive giveaways for the NHS and education (so basically adopting left Labour policies), hiring back the cops they fired (Labour policy again) whilst simultaneously hinting at tax cuts, money for the elderly and so on. It’s all pie in the sky bullshit but a certain kind of Mirror, Sun, Times or Express reading voter eats it up, however ridiculous. That’s why they’re making gains where May made losses, because they’re just making up wild lies and the press is totally failing to nail them on it as they have juicier stories.

Corbyn will no doubt be out when he loses the next election but it’ll be a bit late by then.

Zephro 2019-09-16 13:50:43 UTC #2984

This is cynical and more indicative of how I think the press and electorate are. But basically just put Keir Starmer in charge. He’s got a normal background, dad was a plumber, went to Leeds, but did become head of the CPS. Looks like he can wear a suit. Can crack a fucking joke. Doesn’t snap at journalists. Can work the Commons functionally. Probably doesn’t intimidate anyone who’s a racist prick. Just shove him out there with the 2017 manifesto in hand and I imagine opinion polls would change.

Lukasz 2019-09-17 01:14:40 UTC #2985

Johnson humiliated by Luxembourg PM at ‘empty chair’ press conference

BillButNotBen 2019-09-17 01:44:09 UTC #2986

It’s funny, but I’m not sure it’s gonna help.

He also got called a rubbish Hulk by Mark Ruffalo… so he’s not having a great week.

Corbyn has certainly been unfairly treated by the press, but imho the main issue with him is that he has never really seemed to be in control of his own party. If half his party and most of his MPs don’t like or believe in him or even follow him, why would he appeal to anyone outside the party?

(edit: rereading, I guess the same might be said for Boris, but he at least comes in with a clear issue, public profile, etc…)

LexW 2019-09-17 14:27:02 UTC #2987

Boris doesn’t have any broader support than Corbyn does within the party. Both were elected by members essentially over the objections of a lot of MPs and it’s not true to say he has a clear cause, either, he is intentionally keeping it vague and using promises that people can read into. He just shouts about a fixed date Brexit enough to please the nutters and keep the Brexit party from totally ruining Tory chances. Everything else is wibble.

What Boris does have is a high public profile and a Trump-style fanbase, ie actual thickos who like him because he pretends to be anti-establishment despite being as establishment as is humanly possible short of actually being a royal and lack wits who think his weak schoolboy jibes and general dim-wittery is “fun” rather than horrifying, in some cases because they have “mates” they think are like him. I’m told by people who have met both that he’s actually considerably less personable than Farage IRL, indeed kind of a jerk.

Anyway point is he doesn’t have a lot of support in his party. I don’t think he’ll be PM as long as Corbyn has been opposition leader, because the moment he gets in, it’s KNIVES OUT because anyone can be leader and he’s Johnny No Mates and a massive backstabber so why show him loyalty? Plus he’s already showing he can’t handle the strain and indeed already hinted about resigning.

Corbyn’s policies don’t matter because the press haven’t been willing to report on opposition policies except to ridicule them since about 2011. All the press are guilty of this, but the BBC are particular scoundrels. They used to often compare party policies when they were announced, but now they’ll just give the government line on a policy, and maybe have a couple of sentences of criticism from opposition MPs, with no mention of opposition policies. When the opposition does announce their whole slate of policies you get perhaps a one-off article shorter than an article about a single new government policy, unless they sense something risible or scary if lied about or best of all, a vague comment that isn’t a policy but that they can misrepresent as one.

Corbyn has been kept in too by what can only be termed cowardice from Labour MPs. Momentum aren’t morons - if there were people willing to stand to replace Corbyn who were at least not basically Lib Dems, he could be out. But as has been said, they just want to wait it out and let him lose another election and resign due to losing and age. It’s some sad shit, frankly.

Zephro 2019-09-20 23:46:19 UTC #2988

It’s almost as if Lansman and McClusky have just seen the Tory party tear itself apart and gone “Hold my beer…”

WHAT THE FUCK?

Sarfrin 2019-09-21 00:15:55 UTC #2989

Oh for fuck’s sake. Just at the time where the Tory party is tearing itself apart right in the public eye we’ve been cursed with the stupidest two opposition parties in the history of British politics. And that’s why the Tories are still ahead in the polls. If no one can gain a lead on Boris fucking Johnson it’s time to burn the whole fucking thing down and start again from the ruins of a collapsed society.

Apologies for the double swear, but I think it’s justified.

Zephro 2019-09-21 00:19:10 UTC #2990

In the words of Jamie MacDonald "Clueless, Egg, Cunts."

TheDreamlord 2019-09-22 09:58:50 UTC #2991

Well at last Corbyn reveals his true colors.

LexW 2019-09-22 10:31:33 UTC #2992

I mean there’s literally nothing new in what he’s saying so I don’t see how he’s “revealing” anything.

Zephro 2019-09-22 12:23:26 UTC #2993

Yeah but attempting to put in an NEC motion to set the Brexit policy behind closed doors before it’s debated by members at conference… Definitely the internal democracy he campaigned on and not rank hypocrisy. Also the key adviser responsible for the 2017 manifesto has quit:

There aren’t enough facepalm gifs for how self defeating this all is.

TheDreamlord 2019-09-22 12:35:21 UTC #2994

He spells out his preference of leaving the EU.

LexW 2019-09-22 14:41:33 UTC #2995

I mean, no, that’s exactly what he didn’t do, the waffle old bastard. Literally, undeniably, he did not “spell it out”. He did the opposite of spelling it out - he was vague and fluffy and refused to say which he preferred.

You’re reading between the lines (correctly) and saying that by saying that, he’s “spelling it out” (incorrectly), but whilst you’re right that he believes that, as indicated by countless comments (hence nothing new), he really is not “spelling it out”. Spelling it out would be “I would prefer that we leave the EU”. Fluffy nonsense like “There could be benefits to being outside the EU” just reveals that he isn’t a remainer, not that he’s a definite leaver - though he is a definite leaver, as noted from previous comments.

Sorry I’m being pedantic here but saying he’s “spelling it out” is like using “literally” to mean “metaphorically”.

It is certainly fascinating the Labour is deciding to self-destruct here.

That said, I find it hard to place blame solely on Corbyn and Momentum, because the centrist part of the party has done nothing but basically attempt outright sabotage since Corbyn got in, and continues to do so right to this day - c.f. motions to try and make Labour back Remain 100%, which, much as I might like to see it, is manifestly not going to benefit Labour from an electoral standpoint, and would likely ensure a Tory government - unfortunately I feel like many in both the Momentum and centrist camps would be perfectly happy with that outcome. Momentum because they believe it will lead to Glorious Socialism after it ends in tears for the Tories (which I think is unlikely, frankly), and the centrists because they know Corbyn will be out by the next time they’re seriously fighting an election (i.e. 5 years from now), if only from age. Fuck all these dudes.

TheDreamlord 2019-09-22 16:02:37 UTC #2996

You don’t say …

Skalpadda 2019-09-23 21:46:13 UTC #2997

If I’ve read things right it seems like you’re stuck between Corbyn and the left of Labour dreaming of pushing through some questionable planned economy stuff that would be difficult while in the EU shared market and Boris and the Tory right wing wanting to turn the UK into some sort of tax haven hellscape for the benefit of the upper classes, and no one (maybe the LibDems?) is really solidly in the corner of the other 48% of the population?

I’m not even particularly pro-EU in general, I can see there being rational reasons for wanting to leave, but this is just such a bad situation and badly handled by everyone involved.

TheDreamlord 2019-09-23 22:29:33 UTC #2998

This is pretty much it, really. The right wants to “unshackle” from the EU to pursue their American dream, whereas the left wants out of the EU to pursue their Communist paradise. Twats the lot of them.

BillButNotBen 2019-09-23 23:51:11 UTC #2999

Well now Labour have voted and decided on their brexit position… kinda.

To be fair, their basic position kinda makes sense:
If they get into power, they negotiate a deal, and then have a second referendum on that deal, or staying. Depending on how good a deal they get, they campaign to leave or stay.

The problem is that they’re unlikely to get into power because their position is too complex and unclear. It’s much easier to mobilize voters to vote for or against a clear position.
If there is an election, it’s going to be fought basically on leave VS remain, and right now there is a clear leave party, and remain voters are going to be divided.

Plus the majority of voters are just fed up with the whole mess and want it to be over - and so offering another 3 months of negotiation is unlikely to be a big selling point.

Personally, I’m very unclear on how any deal with the EU could possibly be better than the deal we have now.
We already have preferential membership that a lot of other EU members would kill for. There’s no way we’re going to get better terms than full EU members. Anything we sign up to is likely going to be about trying to maintain existing access under existing rules… but we’re no longer going to have any say on those rules.
The only possible benefit might be not paying any money in.

If the EU is a freemium subscription service, we’re basically going from a full paying premium member to a free account.
Which can be appealing as it’s cheaper, but as we all know, if you aren’t a paying member then you’re the product.

Blackice 2019-09-24 13:52:06 UTC #3000

The plot thickens

BillButNotBen 2019-09-24 23:18:14 UTC #3001

Impeach him!

No… wait… is that the other guy?

That screaming sound in the force was 100s of MPs suddenly realizing they had to get up before 11am tomorrow.

LexW 2019-09-25 16:33:16 UTC #3002

The trouble is it’s not really “the right” or “the left” that want that - it’s the extremes. But neither the Tories nor Labour have been able to cogently oppose the extremists. With the Tories it’s the natural consequence of UKIP terrifying the shit out of them. They got a tiny percentage of the vote, but it was 80-90% directly pilfering the Tory vote. With Labour it’s unfortunate timing, and the legacy of Blair and Brown, in suppressing the left of the part, that lead to it suddenly becoming a huge thing (I imagine Zephro can say more and better on this).

The entire referendum was a crude Tory attempt to use a wedge issue to simultaneously hurt Labour and reduce the threat of UKIP, as per the instructions/methodology of Lynton Crosby. He’d used similar tactics before and EU membership, particularly immigration, was indeed a wedge issue in Labour, because a sizable number of Labour voters are skeptical about letting people in to “take their jobs” (even if party members rarely share this opinion).

I blame Gordon Brown for the whole thing though. Hear me out!

It was he, who, with his “bigoted woman” crack, and then his failure to take a stand (instead becoming servile and apologetic to a woman who was, undoubtedly and clearly, a bigoted scoundrel), made it clear that this was a serious wedge issue. Before that the Tories were paying no attention to that - they seemed to think only they had this as an issue.

So by being, in sequence, an idiot, and then a coward, he started the ball rolling. Had Labour taken a firmly “No fuck this shit” stance back then, it’s unlikely Crosby would have tried that angle.

Labour seems to be keen to create a new wedge issue for itself right now with the whole facepalm-y “BAN PRIVATE SCHOOLS!!!” they’re pushing extremely hard whilst simultaneously attempting to soft-pedal (great combo…). There’s no possibility this ends well for them. They missed their chance in 1965.

Of course Labour has a long history of self-sabotage, in and out of government, that the other parties just don’t share to the same degree (albeit the LibDems were the most spectacular in their self-sabotage, but that was more of a one-off Nick Clegg thing), so I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised.

And I know there a plenty of cynical Labour types on both sides of the party who are fine with Corbyn losing, because they’re convinced Boris + the lunatics will be a total disaster as they try to mis-manage post-no-deal Britain (which is fair, they will) and expect 2+ terms of government after that (which is, I think, reasonable if they get a good candidate).