Adding to that, one issue is that I think the last major “wave” of AAA CRPGs ended in like 2015, which would be where you’d expect to see the biggest expansions/DLC. Since then, it’s been slim pickings for AAA CRPGs. We’ve recently got 2077, which has been a bit of a car crash, and they’ve not even had the balls to detail any DLC for that. I’d expect some fairly serious stuff like Blood and Wine, to try and re-invigorate their brand, but we have no idea. We got ME:Andromeda, which was bad enough that they cancelled a bunch of DLC, including what looked like a pretty chunky one. Nothing from Bethesda (FO4 was 2015, had mediocre DLC). Larian’s previous efforts were both AA rather than AAA in cost/scope, but BG3 is AAA - but it’s deep in early access, so no idea on any DLC.
Am I missing anything? We’ve had some good indie stuff, including Disco Elysium, and a lot of mediocre-to-great AA stuff like Pillars 2, Pathfinder, The Outer Worlds, DOS2 and so on. TOW has a couple of big-sound DLCs but I find myself unable to care because it feels so static/inflexible/uninvolving (tried replaying it recently). Pillars 2 had a season pass which did include a very good DLC - Beast of Winter, which is like, much over-looked but definitely a “proper” DLC like Lair of the Shadowbroker, Trespasser, or older stuff. Still not a ton.
With DA4 and ME5 (people call it ME4, but it’s post-Andromeda, so…), assuming they don’t all explode in some ball of flames (Casey Hudson once more left Bioware, for better or ill, as did a couple of others - not creatives though), I would expect that the amount of DLC that actually gets made is dependent very much on their reception. I will be interested to see if Bioware is confident enough to be selling “season passes” at launch with them or what approach they take.
We’ve got Starfield at some point probably in the next year or two, and being Bethesda, I expect them to try and cash in pretty hard so I would expect a lot of DLC - question is will it be any good? TES6 is so far away it’s not even worth considering, as ridiculous as that still sounds - who knew it would go from 5 years between TES games to likely 15+? I can’t think that’s effective management of resources.
Obsidian, now with more money and probably more staff have Avowed, which we still know jack shit about, though if it’s not first-person and somewhat Elder Scrolls/Ultima Underworld/Arx Fatalis-ish, I’ll be shocked. If that’s looking good, I am sure Obsidian will have DLC coming for it.
There are others, but anyway, I think whilst we may see some good DLC come out as the next wave of AAA CRPGs comes in, it’s probably 1-2 years away for most, and the situation is otherwise likely to be pretty static.