Oh, they absolutely are sure things. There are four picks left, and those will be three of them.
And yes, I am hoping for Stories Untold just to see the hilarity of an ultra-tie.
Speaking as the person who is capping the pot at $40 for ties: there will be an alternate option where you get to pick Steam keys from my Big Bag O’ Extra Keys that are worth more than the steam/gog/itchbuck equivalent, if people are interested in anything I have.
As for Nier: Automata vs. Nioh; my understand is that the former is a game that transcends genre and expectations to become something singulary interesting and distinct, while Nioh is merely a really good implementation of its genre. Which I thought was enough to get it on the list, but I knew if it had to be one, it would be Nier: Automata, even with Alec’s refusal to play past the intro (because I knew Katherine, Alice, and Adam would all vote for it, at least).