The Advent Calendar Guessing Game, 2020 Edition

[MiniMatt]

Honestly I wouldn’t rule it out so readily: it’s easily the most anticipated game of the year, it’s probably the biggest selling game of the year, I’d be amazed if at least three staff haven’t put serious hours into it by the 17th.

Now it being a hot mess is definitely a reason it would fall, and what we’ve seen the last 24 hours suggests the chance of that is high.

But if it doesn’t make the 2020 calendar there’s no way it’d be a 2021 contender: nobody remembers 2019 - it was at least a decade ago, I fear 2021 will be no different.

[Aerothorn]

Normally I’d agree with you, but given the hype and bigness you explain, plus the fact that for all intents and purposes 2021 will be it’s “year,” I think they will absolutely consider it. It’s just a question of whether it leaves a good lasting impression.

[Vandelay]

I think it would need to be exceptionally good to be included in next year’s list. So good that it makes similar games released next year feel dated. Either that or it needs to give reason for multiple staff members to return to it towards the end of the year, due DLC or it to really reward replaying.

It doesn’t sound from reviews that it will be that good, even with patches. It will likely be a very good game, but it doesn’t sound like it is going to have as much impact as The Witcher 3 did with open world games. I fully expect there will be plenty of other games released between now and December 2021 that will make it feel less relevant.

[Aerothorn]

I certainly hope that is the case! If nothing else, CDPR made very significant project management fails with this project, and it would be nice if those could have some sort of repercussions such that they were driven to learn from them (as they clearly were not with The Witcher 3).

[Aerothorn]

My real reason for running the Advent Calendar Guessing Game is to get this forum badge.

[Sarfrin]

I earned ‘Regular’ a couple of days ago.

[Graham]

I wonder what it’s edged out?

Immortals didn’t edge anything out, technically. We got a bunch of codes for the game in November, and so people had played it at the point when we did the voting. (I’ve played it since and like it, too).

I’d be amazed if at least three staff haven’t put serious hours into it by the 17th.

I’d bet on between 5 and 7 of us having put heavy hours into the game by that point. Whether any of us will like it enough to vote for it, I dunno.

[Aerothorn]

I’m actually really surprised to hear that, given how buggy it seems to be at the moment. Is this a matter of professional obligation for more than one staff member (the reviewer), or do you guys not want to wait for patches? Is that wanting to play it during holiday break, or is it needing to play things In The Moment to keep current with the cultural conversation?

Edit: Durr, I forgot about the guides people. So at least two people have to play it, then.

Edit 2: I love that this is the most prominent guide: https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2020/12/09/how-to-fix-cyberpunk-2077-crashing-on-startup/

[BillButNotBen]

I wonder if Immortals Fenyx Rising will edge out Genshin Impact. I know graham liked that one, but it would mean two Breath of the Wild clones on the list. IFR would be the one without the microtransactions and dodgy costumes.

I feel sorry for the guides guys, they must be in their own crunch mode with Cyberpunk.

Why didn’t they just call it Fenyx Rising?

[Aerothorn]

Why didn’t they just call it Fenyx Rising?

I’m pretty sure that this is because Ubisoft thinks all games of a certain budget have to be franchises, so it needs a “franchise title” which in this case is Immortals.

[BlankedyBlank]

It could have been “Fenyx” though. Fenyx Rising, Fenyx Falling, Fenyx Rising 2.0: Fenyx Rising Harder… the possibilities are endless!

[Aerothorn]

Ooof. Almost everyone got Crusader Kings 3 except me. I knocked it off my list because I thought (correctly) that due to staff changes only Nate was likely to vote for it, and thought (incorrectly) that he wouldn’t spend enough points to force it.

I am starting to think that my initial “pulled out of my butt” list is going to have won more points than my hours-spent-researching list.

Starting to worry for Horizon Zero Dawn, which I was confident Nate would force through votes alone if he had to, but he’s running out of points. Ditto with Star Wars Squadrons, though I trust Ollie to force that if necessary.

[BillButNotBen]

Yeah, oof.

It was one of those ones that everyone was picking, and I could see that it was probably a fair choice, but I just couldn’t get that excited about it. CK2 generated all these interesting articles, but I haven’t seen any of those for CK3. Everyone seemed to say it was a nice improvement over CK2, but no-one seemed super excited about it either.

So it was one of the ones I booted when trying to pick a few more interesting choices and differentiate my list.
Looking at my list now, I think a bunch of the ‘Sin’ games and more offbeat indie games are unlikely to come up. I already took a bunch of them off, such as Wildermyth, but I was hoping ones like Hardspace: Shipbreaker might hold on.

The RPS Advent Calendar 2020, December 10th

[Godwhacker]

CK3 was definitely a “other people have this” pick for me, rather than a “this game was great” one, but then I’m not much of a strategy guy.

I considered Shipbreaker, except I absolutely hated playing it, to the point of a refund. Each to their own.

[Aerothorn]

As much as some staff enjoyed it, Shipbreaker is (by its own admission) unfinished, very early access - if it gets an award, I suspect it will be when it hits 1.0, which is probably 2022 at the earliest.

[MiniMatt]

Yeah Shipbreaker had a lot of people playing it, a lot of people liking it, and a lot of articles written about it early on in the year but I fear (for my calendar points) it’ll be a 2021 entry.

Wildermyth too, although that’s far further along and I hope likely to KRZ its way to a calendar entry while in early access because…

Do you remember “Can’t Stop Playing”? It kinda fizzled out February this year but take a look at the games which have worn its tag:
Streets of Rogue
Wilmots Warehouse
Star Wars Jedi Fallen Order
Disco Elysium
Noita
Wilderymyth
Temtem

Every single game that got a Can’t Stop tag in 2019 also got a calendar entry…

[Sarfrin]

I decided to leave Roki off because I hadn’t seen much buzz about it. Oh well, I knew this was going to be a tricky year.

[Aerothorn]

Didn’t think Roki would make it! Hooray! I’m only slightly behind the pack now!

And sergiocornaga pulls into the lead!

[Graham]

I’m actually really surprised to hear that, given how buggy it seems to be at the moment. Is this a matter of professional obligation for more than one staff member (the reviewer), or do you guys not want to wait for patches? Is that wanting to play it during holiday break, or is it needing to play things In The Moment to keep current with the cultural conversation?

All of the above, really. There’s certainly good professional reasons for all of us to play it, and it’s v. much the cultural conversation of the moment and arguably the biggest game launch in a couple of years. Plus, it’s a bi open world city/sci fi game, and a bunch of us like that, so.

I’ve played about 15 hours of it so far and the bugs haven’t been too bad. Mostly animation things that are superficial.

[and_its_man]

I am broken English, but I have äccënts.
Röki Röki Röki.

On another note, like you @aerothorn, I think it’s dead for The Löngïng. To be honest, I wasn’t very confident it would make it to the calendar in the first place. I was under the impression Alice B wasn’t that enthusiastic about it, or that somehow her enthusiasm didn’t last. Her diary was way shorter than the one she held for Ritual of the Moon (THE MÖÖN!), and I remember the fourth and last entry felt a bit like -oh, it’s over already. Sorta prematurely ended.
It’s a shame, as I liked it a lot, and spent some sweet time - a lot of time - guiding my 67-year-old mother through it over the phone during the first lockdown. Definitely a game I picked because I wanted to see it on the list. Perhaps the only possible intersection point with my own videogaming experience of 2020. Well there’s still my Hylics 2 pick, but that’s a different kind of wild card.
I mean, I dropped Spiritfarer for it. That wasn’t wise. Similarly to In Other Waters, “too harmless”, I thought, “The Longing is more deserving - more daring, yet still gentle -, I’m sure she knows that”.