Update: The Guessing Game Tracking Spreadsheet is now live!
Welcome to the seventh annual Advent Calendar Guessing Game!
(And apologies for posting this so late this year! Still plenty of time to get your picks in, though)
On December 1st, Horace will emerge from his den and reveal to us one of the greatest PC games of 2019. He will do this for 24 days, on the final day revealing the Bestest Best game of the year.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to predict which twenty-four games will be selected. The person with the most correct picks will receive a year’s subscription to RPS, courtesy of the site itself (thanks, Graham!). The runner-up will receive a six month subscription. Please note that these subscriptions do NOT include the games/DLC that come with a purchased subscription - it’s just for all the subscriber perks for the site itself, including ad-free viewing and supporter-only posts.
You’ll be able to track your progress in Fumarole’s Advent Calendar Guessing Game Tracker (maintained by me this year in Fumarole’s absence).
Entering Your Guesses
List the 24 games you think will appear on the Advent Calendar, as well as which game you think will be the final, Bestest Best pick on Day 24 (our first tiebreaker). Please list the game titles, and only the game titles, in your list; this allows it to be easily pasted into Fumarole’s lovely tracking sheet. You are of course welcome to put commentary before/after the complete list.
Please also answer the second tiebreaker question: “How many Advent Calendar games are available for sale on the Epic Game Store, as of December 1st?"
Editing Your Guesses
You can edit your post to change your picks any time before the first Advent Calendar pick of 2019 is revealed. All edits after that point are invalid.
Winning the Guessing Game
You get a point for every pick that appears on the calendar. At the end of the competition, the person with the most points wins, and the second-most is the runner-up. In the event of a tie, we’ll use the following tiebreakers:
The individual who correctly guessed the Bestest Best game is the winner.
If both/neither leaders guessed the Bestest Best game, the person with the closest guess for the second tiebreaker (Epic Store games) will win.
In the extraordinarily unlikely event that there is still a tie, we’ll figure something out that everyone is happy with
Also: as the contest organizer, I am not eligible for any prize, and participate in the competition just for fun
Frequently Asked Questions
Who picks the games?
All current full-time staff. That means Alice Bell, Alice Liguori, Alice O’Connor, Astrid Johnson, Dave Irwin, Graham Smith, Katherine Castle, Matthew Castle, Matt Cox, Nate Crowley, Ollie Toms, and Sin Vega. This also means that staff that left before November (Alec, Brendan, John, Noa) won’t be voting.
What is the selection process?
“Each person is given ten points to spend as they please: if they want to give all ten to one game to make sure it featured, that was fine (though no one has yet done this); if they want to change their votes based on how the list is shaping up, perhaps to take them away from a safely included game and add them to something on the borderline, that is fine, too.
The idea behind this system is to reward more of the games that we truly loved. It encourages people to focus on their true favourites rather than make the numbers up to ten just for the sake of it. And this way, a game that two people ‘just liked’ would not always trump a game that one person loved. If that love was strong enough, it could still get on the list. This system also works better at a time when there are more games than ever that only one person on the team has played, a reflection of both the increased number of games being released and the current team’s wonderfully diverse tastes.”
What games are eligible to receive awards?
Also per Graham:
“it’s eligible if it was released this year, if it exited early access this year, or if it was otherwise substantially updated or changed in a way that made us decide it was the Year Of This Game.
The latter situation has not happened, I don’t think, in the five years I’ve been involved in the list. The other two both have.”
Can Early Access Games receive awards?
Yes: a number of early access games have received awards, including three previous GOTY winners (Minecraft, Kentucky Route Zero, and Dead Cells).
What about games released in December 2016? Or December 2017?
Yes, though it’s unlikely - both of these situations happened exactly once in the six years I’ve been tracking the competition. In 2015, Just Cause 3 made the list despite being released on December 1st, 2015 (due to RPS getting a review copy earlier). In 2017, OneShot got an award, despite being released and reviewed in December 2016.
How on earth am I supposed to divine the combined tastes of twelve different staff members, four of whom are brand new?
Your guess is as good as mine.