This is also my logic, and it’s not on my shortlist - BUT I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Kentucky Route Zero wont Game of the Year with only 2 of 5 episodes released. So it most definitely can happen!
I suspect it will be 2019, though.
Brendan is the resident Zachtronics enthusiast, so I think it comes down to how much he spends his limited points on it. I don’t get the sense that any of the new people are into his stuff.
Keep in mind: at this juncture, there are 12 staff and 24 games. So that’s only two games per staff member! Which means that for something to make it on the list, either a good number of staff members have to like it, or one staff member has to REALLY like it (enough to throw, at minimum, 3 points on it - the only way a 2-pointer is getting on there is if there are a ton of 2-point ties and a few are selected from those, which is certainly possible).