Actually, I don’t think I would have gone with the Tyler/Voq one, if it wasn’t for the real world fact that the IMDB page for the actor playing Voq had barely anything on it and seemed to be a mock up. If I didn’t have that info, I probably wouldn’t have expected it or I would have thought it as about as likely as the Lorca one.
As for this gelling with Trek history, I actually understand that it isn’t a problem yet. I saw someone post a comment elsewhere detailing this (it was on Birth.Movies.Death) and this time period is meant to be pretty much a blank slate. We know that there is a war with the Klingons and we know that by the time we reach TOS there is a cold war. Checking Memory Alpha, this seems to be correct. 2256 is where we are with DISCO and “some sort of peace treaty” is signed between the Federation and the Klingons in 2265, with no major events listed in between.
I don’t think we are in need of a reset yet. The Klingons have supposedly made substantial ground, but they haven’t won. There isn’t any reason to not believe that by the end of the series the Federation is able to take much of their territory back and an armistice is called. (I assume the series will end with the end of the war. Memory Alpha says that 2265 is also the year Kirk took command of the Enterprise, so would likely be a fitting ending.)
Having more distance from the episode, I think that the episode itself was really mostly fine and did have some very good moments. My main issue with it was simply the fact that Lorca ended up being a rather uninteresting character, with fairly generic evil master plan. If he had of been a regular guy in the mirror universe wanting nothing more than to survive, maybe some kind of Han Solo roguish smuggler or something along those lines, then it would have been far more interesting.
I read an interview with Isaacs, where he mentions how he only played the role because of how good the writers were and what they wanted to do with it. He really enjoyed playing up the modern parallels. Unfortunately though, I don’t think these worked in practice. Outside of the on the nose lines about making the Terran Empire great again, there wasn’t anything that seemed overly original or giving interesting commentary. Plus, I thought they were already trying to do this with the Klingons? Throwing in another xenophobic, power hungry group seems rather unnecessary.
The other issue that I really felt with the episode is simply one of pacing. They really are throwing everything at this show constantly with no let up. Even standalone episodes, like the time loop one, barely have time to breath with them constantly rushing onto the next problem or major event (I remember making a comparison in my original comment on the time loop episode to Cause and Effect, where it takes us about 15-20 minutes to even realise they are in a time loop - Discovery had already had about 4 or 5 loops within that time). This really doesn’t feel like a show that has much of an end game planned for the end of the season, let alone beyond that. I almost get the sense that the writers room is just all of them throwing ideas out there and trying to cram as many of them in as possible.
That is probably okay for this season (and, let’s not forget that there have been quite a few production issues), but I hope with season 2 they plan things out a little more and make some decisions on what they are actually going to focus on.